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Analysis-Will gasoline prices drop in 2022? It depends on OPEC and U.S. shale



November 17, 2021

By Stephanie Kelly, Noah Browning and Sabrina Valle

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Whether fuel pump prices fall in 2022 depends on two groups of producers who are struggling to increase oil output in the wake of the pandemic: OPEC and its allies and U.S. shale firms.

The global oil industry’s slow response to the surging demand in 2021 has contributed to soaring energy costs and inflationary pressures worldwide. As the economy recovers and populations resume road, rail and air travel, global oil demand has nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.


Supply has not recovered so fast – so to keep up with demand, the industry is burning through oil kept in storage.

Benchmark oil prices have surged to multi-year highs over $86 a barrel, and some economists warn crude could surpass $100 a barrel, threatening the recovery.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the roughly 100 million barrels per day (bpd) market to flip into surplus in the first quarter next year, and for supply to outpace demand by 1.1 million bpd, taking some heat out of prices. That oversupply could rise to 2.2 million bpd in the second quarter, the energy watchdog forecasts.

Those projections, however, depend on OPEC and its allies increasing output at 400,000 bpd per month, as the group known as OPEC+ slowly unwinds cuts it was forced to make during the pandemic.

But the IEA’s monthly report on Tuesday showed OPEC+ is nowhere near its targets: it produced about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) below those levels in September and October. That is largely due to top African producers Nigeria and Angola, whose maintenance and investment problems are likely to weigh on output next year.


If that underproduction continues, it could wipe out much of the surplus in the first quarter and keep markets tight for longer. The IEA hiked its 2022 forecast for average prices to $79.40 a barrel, even as it said higher supply could give some reprieve.

Commodities trading giant Trafigura warned on Tuesday of a “very, very tight oil market” as declining production investment, partly due to an industry transition to greener energy, adds to price pressure.

The United States and other big energy consumers have asked OPEC+ to increase output more quickly, but the group has refused due to concern coronavirus may again sap demand during the northern winter.

The market is now looking to the U.S. shale industry, which has provided most of the non-OPEC output increase over the past decade.

“There’s one element where you could probably further increase capacity, which is shale in the U.S.,” said Marco Dunand, chief executive of merchant Mercuria Energy Trading, at the Reuters Commodity Trading Summit this week.


The IEA expects a massive 480,000 bpd rise in U.S. crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) output in the second quarter of 2022, and by 1.1 million bpd for all of 2022.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s near-term expectations are lower, with overall crude and NGLs output set to rise by 220,000 in the second quarter. The EIA sees U.S. output accelerating in the second half of 2022, for a 1.25 million bpd increase in crude and NGLs for the year.

However, shale producers have responded more slowly than during previous price rises. Investors and shareholders have demanded greater capital discipline from the industry than in previous boom-bust cycles, and are punishing firms that invest in capacity and rewarding those that pay dividends and reduce debt.

“We’re at $83 a barrel on Brent, and we see no big surge in rig counts,” said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, at the Reuters summit.

Shale companies are grappling with labor and equipment shortages, while others say demand is still too uncertain to boost output as the industry recovers from the pandemic-induced recession.


“It’s still pretty fragile,” said William Berry, chief executive at Continental Resources, in a recent earnings call. “I don’t think it’s appropriate for anyone in the industry to be overproducing into that potentially fragile oversupplied market.”


Non-OPEC Latin American producers are increasing output. Guyana, a relative newcomer on the global oil stage, is slated to start producing 220,000 bpd of extra capacity at an Exxon-run floating production system early next year.

Brazil’s state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA is ramping up its 180,000 bpd floating platform Carioca, which in August started production at Sepia deep-water field in the Santos Basin.

Venezuela has seen its exports increase after receiving Iranian condensate, but it is unclear if that can be sustained, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute.


Canadian supply could rise by roughly 100,000 bpd in the first quarter, said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, but oil companies in the world’s fourth-largest producer are also restraining output.

Total oil supply should reach 99.8 million bpd in the first quarter of 2022, surpassing demand estimated at 98.9 million bpd, said Hittle.

But energy consultancy FGE warned the market supply-demand balance may not change quickly with developed countries’ inventories at six-year lows.

“Although prices will probably trend down from last month’s peak, the current low inventory position sustains the risk of prices spiking higher in the next few months,” FGE said.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly, Noah Browning and Sabrina Valle; additional reporting by Marianna Parraga, Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova and Liz Hampton; editing by David Gaffen, Simon Webb and Sam Holmes)


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Oil up on OPEC+ plan to meet ahead of schedule if Omicron dents demand



December 3, 2021

By Sonali Paul

MELBOURNE (Reuters) – Oil prices climbed on Friday, extending gains after OPEC+ said it would review supply additions ahead of its next scheduled meeting if the Omicron variant hits demand, but prices were still on course for a sixth week of declines.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $66.77 a barrel at 0122 GMT, adding to a 1.4% gain on Thursday.


Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $69.79 a barrel, after climbing 1.2% in the previous session.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, together called OPEC+, surprised the market on Thursday when it stuck to plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) supply in January.

However the producers left the door open to changing policy swiftly if demand suffered from measures to contain the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant. They said they could meet again before their next scheduled meeting on Jan. 4, if needed.

That boosted prices with “traders reluctant to bet against the group eventually pausing its production increases,” ANZ Research analysts said in a note.

Wood Mackenzie analyst Ann-Louise Hittle said it made sense for OPEC+ to stick with their policy for now, given it was still unclear whether Omicron could resist existing vaccines.


“The group’s members are in regular contact and are monitoring the market situation closely,” Hittle said in emailed comments.

“As a result, they can react swiftly when we start to get a better sense of the scale of the impact the Omicron variant of COVID-19 could have on the global economy and demand.”

The market has been roiled all week by the emergence of Omicron and speculation that it could spark new lockdowns, dent fuel demand and spur OPEC+ to put its output increases on hold.

Brent was poised to end the week down about 4%, while WTI was on track for a 2% drop on the week, both down for a sixth straight week.

(Reporting by Sonali Paul; editing by Richard Pullin)


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Didi Global to start work on delisting from New York, to pursue listing in Hong Kong



December 3, 2021

(Corrects last paragraph to say Reuters reported last month on Didi preparing for relaunch of its apps, not this month)

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Global will delist from the New York stock exchange and pursue a listing in Hong Kong, it said on Friday, after it ran afoul of Chinese regulators by pushing ahead with its $4.4 billion U.S. IPO in July.

The company made the announcement first on its Twitter-like Weibo account.


“Following careful research, the company will immediately start delisting on the New York stock exchange and start preparations for listing in Hong Kong,” it said.

It later said in a separate English language statement that its board had approved the move.

“The company will organize a shareholders meeting to vote on the above matter at an appropriate time in the future, following necessary procedures,” it said.

Reuters reported last week citing sources that Chinese regulators had pressed Didi’s top executives to devise a plan to delist from the New York Stock Exchange due to concerns about data security.

The company pressed ahead with its New York listing despite a regulator urging it to put it on hold while a cybersecurity review of its data practices was conducted, sources have told Reuters.


Didi is also preparing to relaunch its apps in the country by the end of the year in anticipation that Beijing’s cybersecurity investigation into the company would be wrapped up by then, Reuters reported last month.

(Reporting by Brenda Goh; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Edwina Gibbs)

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Exclusive-Toyota turns to Chinese tech to reach its electric holy grail



December 3, 2021

By Norihiko Shirouzu

BEIJING (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp will launch an all-electric small sedan in China late next year, having turned to local partner BYD for key technology to finally make an affordable yet roomy runaround, four sources told Reuters.

Two of the four people with knowledge of the matter described the car as an electric holy grail for Toyota which has struggled for years to come up with a small EV that is both competitive on cost in China and doesn’t compromise on comfort.


The sources said the breakthrough was chiefly down to BYD’s less bulky lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) Blade batteries and its lower-cost engineering know-how – a turning of the tables for a Chinese company whose popular F3 saloon was inspired by Toyota’s Corolla back in 2005.

Little known outside China at the time, BYD, or “Build Your Dreams”, hit the headlines in 2008 when Warren Buffett bought a 10% stake and it has since become one of the biggest manufacturers of so-called new energy vehicles in the world.

Toyota’s new EV will be slightly bigger than its compact Corolla, the world’s best-selling car of all time. One source said think of it as “a Corolla with bigger back-seat section”.

It will be unveiled as a concept car at the Beijing auto show in April and will then most likely be launched as the second model in Toyota’s new bZ series of all-electric cars, even though it will only be on sale in China for now.

“The car was enabled by BYD battery technology,” one of the sources told Reuters. “It has more or less helped us resolve challenges we had faced in coming up with an affordable small electric sedan with a roomy interior.”


It will be pitched below premium EVs such as Tesla’s Model Y or the Nio ES6 but above the ultra-cheap Hong Guang Mini EV, which starts at just $4,500 and is now China’s best-selling electric vehicle.

Two of the four sources, all of whom declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the media, said the new Toyota would be priced competitively.

One said it would likely sell for under 200,000 yuan ($30,000), aiming for a segment of the Chinese market Tesla is expected to target with a small car within the next two years.

“We don’t comment on future products,” a Toyota spokesperson said. “Toyota considers battery electric vehicles as one path to help us get to carbon neutrality and is engaged in the development of all types of electrified vehicle solutions.”

A BYD spokesperson declined to comment.



The fact Toyota has been compelled to turn to BYD to solve its low-cost EV conundrum shows how far the competitive balance of the global auto industry has tipped in the past decade.

When the quality of Chinese vehicles was considered below par, global automakers were not too concerned that they couldn’t compete on price and left Chinese companies to control the domestic market for cheap, no-frills cars.

But times have changed.

Toyota executives started to worry back in 2015 when BYD launched its Tang plug-in hybrid, with significant improvements in styling, quality and performance. Most worrying was that fact it was still about 30% cheaper than comparable Toyota models.


There was a critical turn of events in 2017 when Toyota’s top engineering leaders, including then-executive vice president Shigeki Terashi, drove several BYD cars such as the Tang at its proving ground in Toyota City near its headquarters in Japan.

Terashi subsequently visited BYD’s headquarters in Shenzhen and drove a prototype of its Han electric car.

“Their long-term quality is still a question mark, but the design and quality of these cars showed levels of maturity, yet they were much cheaper than comparable Toyota models,” said one of the four sources, who participated in the test drives.

“We were all kinda floored by that.”

Two of the sources said the BYD evaluations pushed Toyota to create its research and development (R&D) joint venture with BYD last year. Toyota now has two dozen engineers in Shenzhen working side-by-side with about 100 BYD counterparts.



Toyota’s new EV comes at a time it is under fire from environmental groups that maintain it is not committed to zero emissions. They say Toyota is more interested in prolonging the commercial usefulness of its successful hybrid technology.

Toyota executives say they’re not against battery electric vehicles (BEVs) but argue that until renewable energy becomes more widely available, they won’t be a silver bullet for slashing carbon emissions.

Nevertheless, Toyota has set up division in Japan dedicated to zero-emissions cars called ZEV Factory and it is developing safer and lower-cost battery technologies, including solid-state lithium-ion cells which would significantly boost an EV’s range.

While Toyota has long advocated a runaround that doesn’t compromise on comfort as the best way to popularise BEVs, it has struggled to produce such a car.


One problem stems from need to stack bulky, heavy batteries under the floor, as they eat up the interior unless the roof is raised too – which is why many smaller EVs are SUVs.

In 2018, Toyota briefly explored the idea of a battery venture with BYD. That and subsequent interactions led Toyota’s engineers to come across BYD’s LFP Blade battery. They described it as a game-changer as it was both cheaper and freed up space.

“It’s a ‘scales fell from my eyes’ kind of technology we initially dismissed because its design is so radically simple,” one of the four sources said.

BYD officially launched its Blade battery in 2020.

LFP batteries have a lower energy density than most other lithium-ion cells but are cheaper, have a longer shelf-life, are less prone to overheating and don’t use cobalt or nickel. Tesla already uses LFP batteries in its Model 3 and Model Y in China.


One of the sources said a typical Blade pack is about 10 cm (3.9 inches) thick when the modules are laid flat on the floor, roughly 5 cm to 10 cm thinner than other lithium-ion packs.

A BYD spokesperson said that was possible, depending on how an automaker packages the Blade pack in a car.


While Toyota has not fully solved the puzzle as to how BYD keeps coming in low on costs, two of the sources said one factor may be its abbreviated and flexible design and quality assurance process – which some Toyota engineers see as cutting corners.

Toyota’s planning process is much more rigid and thorough, the sources said. Once it has decided on the technologies, components and systems at the outset of a car’s three-to-four-year development process, it rarely changes designs.


During the process, Toyota typically does three design prototypes and three manufacturing prototypes. Some are driven about 150,000 km (93,000 miles) to bullet-proof quality and reliability when testing for emissions or bad-road durability.

At BYD, engineers do far less prototyping – there are typically just two – and designs can be changed as late as two years into the process, which is a definite no-no at Toyota, one source said. A BYD spokesperson declined to comment.

But as a result of those last-minute changes, the technology in a BYD car is much more up to date than in a Toyota when it hits the market, and is often cheaper.

The four sources believe that further advances in simulation and virtual engineering know-how, as well as the fact that BYD produces a wide array of its own components, have helped it close potential gaps in quality and reliability that could stem from such last-minute design changes.

“Our challenge at Toyota is whether we dismiss BYD’s way of engineering as being loosey-goosey and too risky, or whether we can learn from it,” one of the sources said.


($1 = 6.3703 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Editing by David Clarke)

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