Let’s first discuss why we shouldn’t worry about this:
1. For most people, it’s out of our control
Unless if you work in the West Wing, the Defense Department, the Energy Department, or anything else related to nukes – you have no control over this. So stop wetting your pants and losing sleep over this.
I’m sure Defense Secretary Mattis, Energy Secretary Perry, Chief-of-Staff Kelly, and others are talking to President Trump about this.
Also, stop with this nonsense of impeachment. It’s a pipe dream. It’s never going to happen. So don’t waste any minute of your life worrying about Armageddon, the apocalypse, or nuclear holocaust.
2. Kim Jung Un is a rational actor – he won’t commit suicide
So, let’s get some FACTS out of the way:
- The United States has 6,800 nuclear warheads, second only to Russia, while North Korea has the ability to allegedly create 25-60 nuclear warheads
- The United States has a military budget of about $600 billion, while North Korea spends an estimated $8 billion each year
- The United States has 13,760 military aircraft, while North Korea has less than 1,000
- The United States has several allies in the region who can shoot down any missiles shot from North Korea, which North Korea has maybe one (China).
So, North Korea can’t win a war against the United States. They could commit suicide or start a war in the hope the United States surrenders quickly before they nuke and kill millions of innocent people.
But, let’s be honest: Kim Jung Un is a rational actor. He won’t commit suicide, and while he could kill millions of people in South Korea, he won’t…
Because it’s too risky. You see, Kim Jung Un enjoys being a ruthless dictator. He gets to run an entire country by himself. He isn’t accountable to anyone. In fact, the dictator of North Korea is arguably the least accountable leader in the world. This means he can watch TV, eat donuts, and smoke weed all day in his pajamas. He can pretty much do anything he wants.
So why would he give up that lifestyle?
He’s not interested in war. He’s not a psychopath. Sure, he leaves his own people starving and in poverty. That is likely because he is mostly interested in himself and self-preservation.
3. Kim Jong Un’s main goal is only interested in maintaining his power
His main goal in life is self-preservation. Let’s briefly review the history of this conflict.
During the Cold War, Korea was split into northern and southern countries, with North Korea being a left-wing communist regime backed by the Soviet Union and North Korea being a democratic, capitalist regime backed by the United States. The U.S. sent troops to South Korea, and have been there ever since.
North Korean dictator Kim Il-sung wanted nukes, but the USSR rejected the idea. In 1985, the Democratic People´s Republic of Korea became a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
After the Soviet Union collapsed, Kim Il-sung handed off his regime to his oldest son Kim Jong-il, in 1991. The next year, when the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted inspections in North Korea and found that the regime lied about their nuclear weapon programs. They also disallowed the IAEA from inspecting certain locations. In 1993, the IAEA declared that the DPRK violated the Safeguards Agreement.
In 1994, President Bill Clinton came to the rescue and persuaded Kim Jong-il, only a few months after his father died, to sign an Agreed Framework to stop the nuclear power plant program.
President George W. Bush found out North Korea was lying and trying to create nuclear weapons. He got pissed and labeled them part of the Axis of Evil in his 2002 State of the Union speech. Later that year, North Korea confessed and a few months after that, North Korea withdrew from the NPT.
The conventional wisdom is that Kim Jong-ill and his son were lunatics willing to use nukes to preserve power. They are psychotic madmen willing to blow up the world. That’s why they’ve been able to get away with a lot of human rights violations and build nukes.
4. Trump’s tactics might work
After George W. Bush and Barack Obama were fairly soft on North Korea, they may have finally met their match with President Trump. We finally have a president who has the guts to stand up to “Rocket Man” and call his bluff.
Trump’s enemies portray POTUS in a similar light to Kim Jung Un: a thin-skinned lunatic.
There has been an epic “War over Words” between the two. Trump called Kim Jung Un “Little Rocket Man,” a “madman,” and “fat.” North Korea’s dictator called POTUS a “mentally deranged dotard.”
I’m sure leaders from across the world have been frightened by this. Maybe this will help the Nuclear proliferation movement. Maybe, China will finish the North Korea problem once-and-for-all. Maybe, Kim Jong Un will finally stop their nuclear program. Maybe, Kim Jong Un will resign and surrender his regime. Maybe, just maybe, all this nuclear saber-rattling and childish name-calling will yield some positive results.
This article was originally published on Politicus Dominum’s Genius Trump blog.